OPINION | From Provocation to Incursion: How Somalia’s Political Games Sparked a New Frontline in Sanaag

By Hussein Elmi | April 18, 2025

The early morning hours of April 18 saw a worrying development in the escalating tensions between Somaliland and Somalia: armed fighters loyal to the Khaatumo militia administration, reportedly based in Las Anod, launched a cross-border attack on the rural village of Dhoob in the Erigavo District of Somaliland’s Sanaag Region.

This blatant violation of Somaliland’s territorial sovereignty is being described by government sources as a direct consequence of Somalia Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre’s inflammatory visit to Las Anod on April 12—a visit that has now sparked a dangerous chain of events, drawing a once relatively stable region closer to open warfare.

The Attack on Dhoob: A Calculated Escalation

Eyewitness reports and local sources confirm that armed militiamen entered Dhoob, firing on unarmed pastoralists and causing panic among villagers, many of whom were forced to flee with their families and livestock. The attack, which occurred in an area long known for its peaceful rural lifestyle, has left residents shocked and displaced.

The Somaliland National Army responded swiftly, repelling the attackers and regaining control of the village. While casualty figures remain unconfirmed, the Ministry of Defence has vowed to release full details after further assessment of the situation on the ground.

Initial investigations suggest that the armed group originated from Las Anod, where Khaatumo-aligned forces have maintained a presence since February 2023, when Somaliland forces tactically withdrew from the city to avoid urban warfare. Since then, the Khaatumo group—originally formed as a pro-Somalia entity—has expanded its claims to parts of eastern Sool, Sanaag, and Cayn (SSC) regions.

But Dhoob lies well within Sanaag, in territory firmly under Somaliland control. This marks a new and alarming geographic escalation in the conflict, suggesting that the war is no longer about Las Anod—and that Somalia’s proxies may now be pursuing a broader campaign to destabilize Somaliland’s eastern regions.

Mogadishu’s Role: Incitement, Not Mediation

The Somaliland government has been vocal in attributing responsibility for the recent violence to the Somali federal leadership. In a statement issued following a cabinet meeting this week, President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdilahi “Irro” condemned Somalia’s Prime Minister for “knowingly violating the sanctity of Somaliland’s borders” and “emboldening insurgent groups through irresponsible political theatrics.”

This sentiment is shared widely across Somaliland’s political spectrum. For many, PM Barre’s unsanctioned entry into Las Anod was not a diplomatic act, but rather a signal of greenlighted aggression, timed to coincide with Somalia’s deepening political crisis and military setbacks elsewhere.

It also serves as a distraction from Somalia’s crumbling internal order. Over the past week alone:

• Al-Shabaab militants overran the strategic town of Adan Yabaal, alarmingly close to Mogadishu.
• Baidoa, the seat of South West State, came under coordinated militant assault.
• Federal elections are being pushed through unilaterally, without consensus from Puntland and Jubbaland, key federal member states.
• Reports have emerged that some South West leaders are cutting local non-aggression pacts with Al-Shabaab, prioritizing local stability over national policy—an alarming sign of federal disintegration.

As the central government in Mogadishu loses grip on its own territory, critics argue it has redirected attention toward Somaliland in a desperate bid for political relevance and nationalist deflection.

What Does Somalia Gain? A Fragile Federation Playing with Fire

Mogadishu’s renewed interference in Somaliland’s territory raises crucial questions: What does Somalia stand to gain by provoking a border conflict with Somaliland?

For one, it reinforces the illusion of national unity at a time when Somalia is splintering internally. Secondly, it diverts domestic attention from Al-Shabaab’s resurgence and the failure of security operations in Galmudug, Hirshabelle, and parts of Jubbaland. Thirdly, it politically empowers Villa Somalia to portray Somaliland’s resistance as a threat to Somalia’s territorial integrity, allowing Barre and President Hassan Sheikh to rally federalist sympathies, especially ahead of controversial elections.

But these gains are short-term—and dangerously myopic.

As Somalia sinks deeper into armed fragmentation, attempts to destabilize Somaliland—a territory with functioning democratic institutions, consistent development policies, and international partnerships—will only exacerbate regional insecurity, embolden extremists, and further isolate Somalia on the diplomatic stage.

Somaliland’s Response: Resolute and Defensive

The Republic of Somaliland has made it clear: its sovereignty is non-negotiable, and its patience is not limitless. In recent weeks, Somaliland has:

• Suspended all talks with Somalia, citing PM Barre’s visit as the final straw.
• Reaffirmed its commitment to working with international partners—including the U.S., UK, UAE, Turkey, and ICRC—on humanitarian, security, and legal cooperation.
• Continued strengthening border surveillance and regional security coordination to prevent further cross-border incursions.

Somaliland has long taken the high road in its dealings with Mogadishu, preferring dialogue over war. But today, its citizens and leadership are united in the belief that provocations must have consequences, and security must come before reconciliation.

A Call to the International Community

This is no longer a localized conflict. The attack on Dhoob is symptomatic of a broader failure in Somalia’s governance and the growing risk of state collapse. If left unchecked, these incursions will threaten not just Somaliland, but regional stability in the Horn of Africa.

The international community—particularly those engaging with both Mogadishu and Hargeisa—must now differentiate between a functioning democracy and a failing federation. They must:

• Condemn Somalia’s violation of Somaliland’s borders.
• Support de-escalation and regional mediation mechanisms.
• And above all, engage seriously with Somaliland as a legitimate and stable regional actor.

Somaliland.com will continue monitoring the situation in Sanaag and beyond, and bring you verified updates on the conflict, diplomacy, and the future of peace in the Horn of Africa.