Staff Writer
Hargaysa, Nairobi,– 10, October, 2018–Amid a political turmoil of ethnic clashes on the brink of collapse, Ethiopia witnessed silver lining after upheavals that nearly rocked her. A new prime minister began to lead Ethiopia out of the ongoing turmoil and reshuffled the Ethiopian security apparatus structure and defense sector mainly dominated by single ethnic group since Mengistu Haile Mariam’s fell regime in 1991. He visited almost every neighbor country except Somaliland.
The new Premier who belongs to the Oromo ethnic group extended a peaceful hand to Asmara by conceding of what of all Ethiopians regardless of their ethnic and religious belief view their own territory to arch-foe country, Eritrea. Then he flew to Cairo renewing the severed ties between the two countries.
He travelled to the Middle East to cut off any source of funding in case Ethiopia rebels try to find finances from the Arab countries. Liked by many Ethiopians, he crushed the obstacles that stood his way to power consolidation in his hand.
His Foreign Minister’ latest trip to Mogadishu together with Eritrean Foreign Minister and the discussion of the possible formation of joint army was blow to Somaliland’s crippling diplomacy already decimated by dwindling friends on the global arenas.
Besides the regional and Middle East tours, the Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed visited Mogadishu and declared his respect for Somalia’s territorial unity, a declaration of war upon Somaliland by other means. Somaliland reckoned Addis Ababa as an unfailing friend in a shortage of real friends with Somaliland internationally.
The U-turn worries Somaliland administration, left them speechless, and vulnerable, the former resigned Prime Minister once said in his parliament that his country would fight alongside with Somaliland army if Somaliland is invaded by an enemy. The turnaround by no means abodes well for Somaliland unless Hargaysa leadership wants to bury their head in the sand and expect everything goes fine without engagement.
Somaliland’s cabinet ministers comprise of youth and green seem unable to read between the lines that the Eritrean and Ethiopian Foreign Ministers’ visit to Mogadishu has locked them in and out. The sweeping changes rendered Djibouti, once important hub for the regional trade and global security null and void.
The backlash of the political picnics to Arabia and to the region has higher and more dangerous than expected.
What options Somaliland can take?
Somaliland held democratic elections unprecedented in the region notorious for military bloody coups faces new reality. The visits to Addis Ababa by Somaliland ministers declined if not kept on halt for not knowing what road to take.
The political elite is either flashed out during the presidential race or disqualified by the circumstances.
Russia may recognize Somaliland has taken the world headlines for a few days. However, can Somaliland recycle the same tool to show it’s not a satellite country?
Somaliland has one diplomatic leverage to exert to return Addis Ababa to its common friendship, and that was the Berbera port. It seems it’s no longer needed since Eritrean idle ports were reopened while Addis Ababa government sent none of
To continue living in Fool’s Paradise, Somaliland raised the Addis Ababa flag during DP World inauguration on joint enterprises on the Berbera port instead of blasting Addis for not participating the event of three parties: Somaliland, DP Word, and Ethiopia which owns 19% of the ports investment shares.
Ethiopia always cited security reason for not using Berbera, the world insurance companies don’t insure travelers to Somalia including Somaliland and shipment of goods to Somalia. Somaliland was politically stable for decades but Addis Ababa didn’t dare to set a foot in Berbera excluding occasionally.
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