Somaliland’s Struggle and Isolation: The Downward Spiral Under President Muse Bihi Abdi

Under the presidency of Muse Bihi Abdi, Somaliland has faced a convergence of internal challenges and a stark shift in its international standing, a situation that marks a significant departure from the initial optimism that greeted President Abdi’s ascension. His tenure has been characterized not only by domestic controversies but also by a worrying trend of political isolation on the global stage, significantly impacting Somaliland’s aspirations for democracy, stability, and international recognition.

The governance of Somaliland under President Abdi has faced significant criticism, including allegations of corruption, mismanagement of public assets, and a general lack of transparency. These accusations extend beyond financial misconduct, touching on wider issues of governance and significantly undermining public trust in the administration. This loss of confidence is further exacerbated by growing societal divisions. The policies and administrative decisions made by President Abdi’s government are seen as contributing to social fragmentation, weakening the unity that is vital for Somaliland’s ambitions for international recognition and development. Instead of uniting the population, the current governance approach is perceived as hindering the collective progress of the region.

Concurrently, President Abdi’s tenure has been marked by a disappointing stagnation in political reforms and economic growth. These shortcomings have been particularly detrimental, given Somaliland’s aspirations to establish itself as a viable and legitimate state. The lack of significant progress in these areas has not only caused domestic frustration but also affected the perception of Somaliland in the eyes of the international community.

Adding to these domestic issues, the recent conflict in the Sool region, culminating in its separation from the rest of Somaliland and the consequential overtaking of Las ‘Anod by Dhulbahante militias and their allies, has significantly unsettled Somaliland’s internal security. Contrary to the expectations of a strategic withdrawal meant to pave the way for peaceful negotiations, the sudden overpowering of the Somaliland military has led to a severe and rapid deterioration of order. This abrupt shift has not only revealed the vulnerabilities of Somaliland’s military apparatus but also led to a power vacuum swiftly filled by clan militias, intensifying the fragmentation, and triggering a surge in local conflict as suppressed grievances and clan rivalries resurface.

The defeat of Somaliland’s forces in Las ‘Anod — a development that was as rapid as it was unexpected — highlights the complex and often volatile nature of regional power struggles. The incident underscores the precarious balance between military strategy, clan dynamics, and political negotiations in the region. As Somaliland grapples with these recent upheavals, the broader implications for national cohesion, regional stability, and the overall pursuit of peace become increasingly pressing. Addressing these issues requires a nuanced understanding of the socio-political landscape, including the historical grievances, clan loyalties, and the aspirations of various stakeholders involved.

The postponement of presidential elections in Somaliland has cast a shadow over the region’s commitment to democratic principles, fueling political unrest and public disillusionment. This delay has not only raised concerns about the trajectory of Somaliland’s democratic journey but has also resulted in a deadlock among election stakeholders. Many believe that President Bihi has intentionally engineered this delay to prolong his tenure in power. Such maneuvers are thought to have tarnished the reputation of Somaliland’s hard-earned democracy, which was once hailed as ‘The Beacon of Stability’ in East Africa, notable for its tranquility despite lack of official recognition. This development is a significant departure from the democratic norms that have previously shaped Somaliland’s political landscape and poses serious questions about the future of its democratic governance and stability.

On the international front, President Abdi’s leadership has seen a dramatic shift from Somaliland’s previous position. Before his presidency, Somaliland had managed to cultivate informal international support, with allies at various levels advocating for its interests in global forums. This support was crucial for Somaliland, especially given its unique status as an unrecognized state. However, under President Abdi, these relationships have significantly diminished, leading to a state of political isolation. This isolation not only undermines Somaliland’s efforts to gain international recognition but also impacts its ability to engage effectively in international diplomacy and development.

In concluding, President Muse Bihi Abdi’s tenure has steered Somaliland into a period marked by multifaceted challenges and setbacks. Domestically, allegations of corruption, public asset mismanagement, lack of transparency and governance failures have deeply eroded public trust and legitimacy, aggravating societal divisions and undermining efforts towards unity and international recognition. Economically and politically, the lack of progress and reform has led to frustration and disillusionment among the populace, diminishing the prospects for development and stability that were once within sight.

The security landscape, particularly highlighted by the conflict in the Sool region and the fall of Las -‘Anod to clan militias, has exposed vulnerabilities in Somaliland’s military and governance structures, leading to increased local conflicts and a surge in clan rivalries. These internal conflicts, coupled with the postponement of presidential elections, have not only stymied the democratic process but also raised questions about the future direction and commitment to the principles that have previously defined Somaliland’s political identity.

On the international stage, President Abdi’s term has been characterized by a diminishing of the informal support and advocacy that Somaliland once enjoyed, leading to increased isolation, and significantly impacting its diplomatic and developmental engagements. This shift has serious implications for Somaliland’s long-standing quest for recognition and its ability to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape.

The convergence of these domestic and international issues under President Abdi’s leadership necessitates a strategic reassessment and an urgent recalibration of both domestic policies and international diplomacy. Moving forward, it is imperative for Somaliland to address these pressing challenges through inclusive governance, renewed commitment to democratic principles, and a coherent strategy to re-engage with the international community. The resolution of these issues is critical not only for the stability and future of Somaliland but also for its aspirations as a beacon of democracy and stability in the region.

Abdi Jama