South West State’s Risky Gamble: Peace Deal with Al-Shabaab Sidelines Mogadishu

Qansaxdheere, Bay Region | April 14, 2025 — Exclusive story by Hiiraan News Agency

In a dramatic and unprecedented development, local administrations in South West State of Somalia have reached a secretive agreement with the militant group Al-Shabaab, effectively allowing free movement of goods, people, and militants across Bay and Bakool regions. The deal, which has not been acknowledged by Somalia’s Federal Government, marks a major shift in the internal dynamics of the country’s prolonged conflict and poses serious questions about the unity of the Somali state.

The first visible impact of the deal came this week when, for the first time in over a decade, trucks and motorcycles loaded with food, medicine, and commercial goods entered Qansaxdheere town in Bay Region. The town, located roughly 90 kilometers from Baidoa, had been under a tight economic blockade by Al-Shabaab for over 10 years.

A 13-Day Negotiation in the Bush Madiino

According to confidential sources speaking to Hiiraan News Agency, the agreement was the result of a 13-day negotiation held in the village of Buush Madiino, strategically located between the towns of Diinsoor and Baidoa. The talks began on April 1st and involved:

Senior commanders from Al-Shabaab

Traditional elders from Bay and Bakool

South West State officials

Prominent business leaders from the regions


Notably, the two Al-Shabaab governors of Bay and Bakool, Sheikh Osman Abu Abdirahman and Sheikh Hassan Abu Yahya, personally attended the meetings. They were joined by Muxudiin Abdirahman, head of the Bakool traditional council, and Mohammed Hassan Buunow, a powerful figure from the Hadame clan and a top Al-Shabaab figure.

Terms of the Agreement

The secretive deal includes the following key provisions:

1. Al-Shabaab Agrees to Lift the Blockade:
Al-Shabaab will remove all roadblocks and allow the resumption of trade, public transportation, and humanitarian access to towns in Bay and Bakool.


2. Unhindered Al-Shabaab Movement:
In return, Al-Shabaab militants are given full freedom of movement throughout the two regions without fear of attack or reprisal by South West State forces or allied militias.


3. Mutual Non-Aggression Pact:
Both sides agreed not to engage in direct combat within Bay and Bakool regions. Al-Shabaab will refrain from attacks on government buildings or officials, while regional forces will not launch offensives against the group.


4.Community Access to Basic Needs:
The deal enables communities long trapped by the conflict to access essential services, including markets, health centers, and education facilities.



Who Benefits from the Deal?

Al-Shabaab: Gains strategic depth, legitimacy in local governance, and a steady stream of income through taxation and informal control without military pressure.

Regional Administrators: Avoid costly conflict, restore local trade, and earn political capital among constituents suffering from years of isolation and hardship.

Local Communities: Regain access to food, health services, and basic mobility for the first time in over a decade.


What Does This Mean for Somalia’s Federal Government?

This agreement exposes the growing disconnect between Somalia’s Federal Government in Mogadishu and its member states. While President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre have maintained a policy of “total war” against Al-Shabaab, regional leaders are now choosing to cut deals for stability and survival.

This comes amid other signs of fragmentation, including accusations by Prime Minister Barre that Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe has coordinated with Al-Shabaab in military zones — a claim that further damages the credibility of Mogadishu’s authority.

Analysis: Is Somalia Drifting into Confederalism by Default?

These regional deals point to a dangerous new phase in Somalia’s post-conflict trajectory — a fragmented nation where regional actors operate independently of central authority, often contradicting national security policy.

If this trend continues, Somalia may drift further into an informal confederal model, where federalism exists only in name. Such arrangements would leave the Federal Government increasingly sidelined, unable to enforce national decisions, coordinate security efforts, or secure international credibility.

Conclusion

The recent developments in Bay and Bakool represent both a humanitarian breakthrough and a political alarm bell. While the deal brings immediate relief to long-suffering communities, it also signals the erosion of national unity and the emboldening of a militant group that remains committed to undermining the Somali state.

As Somalia’s leaders struggle to hold the country together, the world must watch closely — not just for the humanitarian consequences, but for the long-term risks of a fractured state yielding to militants for temporary peace.


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