Review: Recognizing Somaliland would be a huge slap in the face to the TFG, which fancies itself as the sole legitimate “sovereign” entity in Somalia

2010-11-22 20:54:25

The British have historical ties to Somaliland (it was their colony,
after all, and was called, creatively, “British Somaliland”). There was
a strategic reason Britain wanted it: if you look at a map, you’ll see
it’s right across from the Aden port in what was another British colony
called The Yemen. Suez Canal, Red Sea, The Yemen-British Somaliland
sandwiching the Gulf of Aden, route to India.

Today, the area has a new strategic importance due to the prospect of
terrorism in Yemen and Somalia messing with things.

On 11/22/10 1:20 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

This would be the first country to openly recognize Somaliland’s
sovereignty, but would not be the first country to think about doing
so. The two countries President Silanyo has now visited since winning
the election — Ethiopia and Djibouti — both seem down with the idea.
On Ethiopia

Another story here says that in the official Ethiopian gov’t press
release on Prez Silanyo’s visit over the weekend, Addis for the first
time referred to him as if he were really the president of a real
country: “According to an official communique by the Ethiopian
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “Prime Minister Meles Zenawi held talks
with Somaliland president Dahir Rayale Kahin on Saturday.” The
official statement, for the first time, refers to Somaliland and its
leader as any other sovereign state and Head of State.”
And also: “According to Somaliland’s Foreign Minister Abdillahi Duale,
Ethiopian officials recognise Somalilander passports and currency.
Somalilander representatives “are received with all the diplomatic
niceties that any minister or head of state gets, with the exception
of a flying flag,” he told South African media.”

On Djibouti

However, Silanyo seems to also get mad love from Djibouti, the country he chose for his first official visit after winning the presidency. On
that trip, Silanyo claims he was given an official welcome at Djibouti airport by President Ismail Omar Guelleh with a red carpet reception, which included all ceremonial symbols of an official visit by a
foreign Head of State. (You can literally see a red carpet in this
video)

On S. Africa and Ghana

Also from that article are discussions of the three countries that
would seemingly even consider recognizing Somaliland:

“In Africa, Somaliland has already established officially recognised
offices in South Africa, Ethiopia and Ghana, functioning as embassies.
South Africa and Ghana have been pushing the AU into considering the
case of Somaliland’s formal recognition and both governments would
prefer the establishment of full-fledged diplomatic and trade
relations rather sooner than later.”

African nations — like any nations, really — are not down with
tinkering with the idea of recognizing border regions. Don’t want to
let the rabbit out of the hat. Obvious reasons. Ironically, Ethiopia
has a huge issue with the Ogaden, its eastern buffer with Somalia,
full of Somalis, but part of Ethiopia since the reign of Menilek, in
the 1880’s (he was just as much of an imperialist as the freaking
Italians, no joke). They fought a pretty bloody war with Siad Barre’s
Somalia over the Ogaden in the 70’s and won. Heavily militarized, lots
of rebel activity there.

That isn’t really the point, though, of this item.

While I was tempted to say that this is completely linked to the
insight we have that Ethiopia has lost faith in the level of control
it maintains of Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG) —
which is not really the Somali, government, more like a Mogadishu
half-government — I think it’s only half linked.

Two things:

1) Recognizing Somaliland would be a huge slap in the face to the TFG,
which fancies itself as the sole legitimate “sovereign” entity in
Somalia, as this gives them prime access to Western gov’t donor funds
and Western gov’t attention

2) Recognizing Somaliland gives Ethiopia better relations with a
country that has control of a stategic port in Berbera. (Ethiopia is
100 percent reliant on Djibouti at the moment.)

On 11/22/10 1:00 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

yes, I googled the headline, it’s 2 days old

On 11/22/10 12:51 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

Code: SO019
Publication: if useful
Attribution: Stratfor Somaliland source (is a Somalilander
activist living in exile in the UK)
Reliability: B-C
Item credibility: 3-4
Source handler: Mark
Distribution: Africa, Analysts

[this is a media story the source sent me, it’s probably available
on OS}
Somaliland FM says Ethiopia to support Somaliland recognition

By Yemane Nagish
Somaliland Foreign Minister Dr. Abdullahi Omar told The Reporter
that the Ethiopian government had assured the somaliland
government that it will work with it in order Somaliland gets
recognition. “We are pleased with the Ethiopian government in
promoting our interest. Ethiopia is working on economy, diplomacy
and security issues that we expect will help us to achieve our
final goal, which is full diplomatic recognition,” he said. “That
has not been achieved so far but we are working on it. The
Ethiopian government is in support of that and we are very
critical to that.”
The new Somaliland President Ahmed Mohamud Ahmud and Foreign
Minister Dr. Abdullahi Omar were here in Addis Ababa for a
three-day official visit since last Wednesday. Deputy Prime
Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister Hailemariam Desalegn and
other high-level government officials welcomed the president upon
his arrival at the Addis Ababa Bole International Airport.
The Somaliland Foreign Minister appreciated the close relationship
that his country has enjoyed with Ethiopia so far. He said that
Ethiopia is a strategic country in achieving his country’s
international recognition. He added the new Somaliland President
Ahmed Mohamud Ahmud discussed issues of recognition and bilateral
relations with Prime Minister Mele Zenawi.
The two parties are working closely on issues related to security,
peace, trade and communications.

Source Nazret